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Jack's Free Pick Sunday: San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+115)

The San Francisco Giants are raking at the plate right now.  They have scored at least 4 runs in six of their last seven games overall while averaging 6.4 runs per game during this stretch.  They just put up a total of 24 runs in winning each of the first two games of this series with the lowly Colorado Rockies (15-30).

The Giants also have a big advantage on the mound over the Rockies today.  Jordan Hicks is 3-1 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in five home starts.

I'll gladly fade Dakota Hudson, who is 1-6 with a 6.13 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in eight starts this season while allowing 27 earned runs, 5 homers and 25 walks in 39 2/3 innings with only 23 K's.  Hudson just faced the Giants on May 7th, allowing 4 earned runs and 10 base runners in 3 2/3 innings of a 5-0 defeat.

Colorado is 8-35 in its last 43 road day games and getting outscored by 2.0 runs per game.  The Rockies are 7-35 in their last 42 road games against a starting pitcher that allows 5.5 or fewer hits per start and getting outscored by 2.2 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Giants on the Run Line Sunday.

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15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Brewers/Astros OVER 9

The Milwaukee Brewers are one of the most underrated offensive teams in baseball.  They are scoring 5.2 runs per game and are 27-16-1 OVER in their 44 games this season.  The Houston Astros are scoring 4.6 runs per game despite not hitting up to their potential to this point.  This total of 9 is too low for these two starting pitchers today.

Spencer Arrighetti has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  Arrighetti is 1-4 with a 7.52 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in six starts, allowing 22 earned runs, 4 homers and 50 base runners in 26 1/3 innings.

Colin Rea has come back down to reality after a good start this season.  He has allowed 7 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts to Pittsburgh and Kansas City.  He only has 30 K's in 44 1/3 innings this season so his 'stuff' isn't as good as his numbers.  He has allowed 6 homers as well.

Houston is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 home games after allowing 4 runs or fewer in four consecutive games.  Milwaukee is 24-14 OVER against right-handed starters this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Rays/Blue Jays OVER 8

The Tampa Bay Rays have gotten healthy offensively and are raking at the plate as a result.  They have scored at least 4 runs in eight consecutive games.  I expect both teams to score 4-plus runs today against these two awful starting pitchers.

Alek Manoah went 3-9 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 19 starts last season.  Manoah is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in two starts this season, already allowing 3 homers in 11 innings.  Manoah is 0-2 with a 12.91 ERA in his last two starts against the Rays, allowing 11 earned runs and 21 base runners in 7 2/3 innings.

Aaron Civale is 2-3 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in nine starts for the Rays this season.  Civale has been at his worst on the road, going 1-1 with a 7.58 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in four starts while allowing 16 earned runs in 19 innings.  Civale is 2-2 with a 4.65 ERA in four career starts against Toronto.

The OVER is 13-3 in Manoah's last 16 home starts against division opponents.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -135

I love the spot for the New York Mets today.  They will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after losing the first two games of this series to the lowly Miami Marlins.  They will be looking to bounce back especially after blowing a 4-run lead in the 9th yesterday.

The Mets have a huge advantage on the mound today.  Sean Manaea is 2-1 with a 3.05 ERA in eight starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA in four road starts.

Sixto Sanchez is 0-0 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing 10 earned runs and 26 base runners in 15 1/3 innings.  Sanchez is one of the worst starters in all of baseball.

The Marlins are 1-15 against left-handed starters this season and hitting .211 while scoring just 2.7 runs per game in those 16 games.  Bet the Mets Sunday.

15* Pacers/Knicks ABC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 209

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The longer a series goes on the more it favors the defenses over the offenses.  Games tend to be played more in the half court as well with fewer fast break opportunities.  NBA Game 7 UNDERS are now 13-4 in their last 17 tries.

The New York Knicks are in a world of hurt offensively right now.  They already lost OG Anunoby to a hamstring injury earlier this series, and now Josh Hart suffered a strained abdomen in Game 6.  Both are highly questionable to play tonight, and if either or both go it will affect them more on offense than it does on defense.

The Knicks know their best strategy is to slow down the tempo and try and grind one out with all their injuries.  They will control the tempo playing at home, and it will be played at a snail's pace, which tends to be the case for all Game 7's.

Indiana is 16-3 UNDER in its last 19 road playoff games when attempting to close out a series.  New York is 9-1 UNDER when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Timberwolves/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 199.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The longer a series goes on the more it favors the defenses over the offenses.  Games tend to be played more in the half court as well with fewer fast break opportunities.  NBA Game 7 UNDERS are now 13-4 in their last 17 tries.

This has been a very low-scoring series thus far with 209 or fewer combined points in five of the six games, including 186 in Game 2 and 185 in Game 6.  This despite one team shooting at least 50% from the floor in every game outside of Game 6.  I don't see either team shooting 50% in this winner-take-all contest.

Jamaal Murray suffered an elbow injury in Game 5 and shot 4-of-18 from the field.  He won't be 100% by Sunday.  Mike Conley Jr. is battling an achilles injury for the Timberwolves, and Anthony Edwards suffered a back injury in Game 6.  Both teams are pretty beat up right now, and that's another reason I don't expect either to have much success offensively.  Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Sunday.